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Gold price prediction today: Gold rate has been fluctuating amidst global turmoil and uncertainty regarding Donald Trump’s trade policies, the recent US credit rating downgrade. Till a few weeks ago gold prices were touching lifetime highs, but have since then retreated. So what’s the gold price outlook for this week, and what should investors do if gold prices drop further? Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers shares his views and recommendations:
Gold Price Trends
Gold turned volatile last week as it plunged by almost 3% to a low of $ 3120 per Oz in spot before recovering and closing above $ 3200 per oz on a weekly basis. A preliminary US-China trade agreement included tariff reductions as Washington lowered duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing planned to cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% that weighed on sentiments. On the other softer macro cues continued to paint a mixed picture with US consumer sentiments showing second lowest reading on record lifting the sentiments towards the end of the week.Meanwhile Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1, citing escalating debt levels and a growing burden from interest payments. This move followed previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now forecasts US federal debt to soaring to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the federal deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP.This is attributed to higher debt servicing costs, increased entitlement spending, and falling tax revenues.
Geopolitical tensions showed no signs of abatement as Trump declared on social media for Ukraine & Russia to immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire but without the US. Sanctions threat, no demand for a time-line, and no pressure on the Russian leader indicated the ceasefire talks may not see a solution anytime soon.
Gold Price Prediction & Outlook
Rising concerns over the US economic outlook & fiscal health have aided sentiments so far during the current week. Meanwhile disappointing US economic indicators had also reinforced expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. However, focus for the current week remains on a slew of Fed speakers which could throw fresh direction on the trajectory of rate cuts during the year as CME tool still shows only 55 bp easing towards year end. Two Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed chief John Williams, had suggested policymakers may not be ready to lower interest rates before September as they confront a murky economic outlook.Overall $ 3,150-3,080 support zone in spot remains crucial in coming days while technical trend remains sideways to slight upside for the current week with profit booking moves may continue at higher levels while buying interest to also persist around the support zone.
Gold Weekly View: Sideways
On MCX June futures Gold (CMP Rs. 93,530 per 10 gm) is expected to trade in a broad range of Rs 89,500 – 95,800 on weekly basis. One may initiate a sell strategy only below a close below Rs 92,300 with downside seen up to Rs 91,000 – 89,500.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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