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Analysts anticipate a volatile week ahead for stock markets as investors closely monitor the impact of US tariffs, US inflation data, and the Reserve Bank of India‘s (RBI) upcoming interest rate decision. The uncertainty surrounding global trade and inflation, sparked by the US tariff impositions, continues to drive market sentiment.
US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of reciprocal tariffs has fueled concerns over a potential trade war, which could significantly impact global trade and economic growth. Experts warn that this escalation in tariffs might lead to inflationary pressures and slowdown in key global economies, further complicating the market outlook.
Volatile trends
“The upcoming week will be volatile for both global and Indian markets,” Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group told news agency PTI. “The markets are grappling with the aftermath of the US tariffs and will be waiting for critical economic data to assess the broader impact.”
US inflation data and the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are expected to be released soon, while India’s RBI is set to announce its interest rate decision on April 9. Analysts are expecting the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points, further influencing market trends. In addition, India’s industrial and manufacturing production data is slated for release, adding another layer of scrutiny to domestic market conditions.
US equity markets recently suffered a sharp decline of nearly 6 percent, marking their worst week since 2020, as concerns about a global economic slowdown grew amid the tariff impositions. On the domestic front, the BSE Sensex dropped 2,050.23 points (2.64%) last week, while the NSE Nifty fell by 614.8 points (2.61%), reflecting the broader market sentiment.
Indian markets
Indian stock markets are also expected to remain volatile, with heightened uncertainty due to fears surrounding the US tariff policy and potential further tariff announcements in the coming week. The market will likely focus on RBI’s monetary policy decision and the start of Q4 FY25 earnings season, with TCS set to report results on April 10.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, highlighted that “The market is anticipating a 25 bps rate cut from the RBI. Investors are also closely monitoring the March CPI data from both the US and India, along with the impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global markets.”
Analysts will keep a close eye on foreign investor behaviour, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, and crude oil prices, all of which could influence trading sentiment in the coming days.
US tariff policy and global economic concerns
Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP of Research at Mehta Equities Ltd, noted that “Investors are worried that Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy will fuel recession and inflation in the US, with potential spillover effects on other economies. This is already having an adverse effect on global stock markets.”
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, pointed out that the recent tariff impositions, which were steeper than expected, could lead to stagflation in the US. “The 10 percent baseline tariff and 25 percent tariff on automobile imports could worsen inflationary pressures, further unsettling the global economic outlook.”
With global trade tensions mounting and key data releases on the horizon, stock markets are likely to experience significant volatility. Investors will be watching for clarity on the US tariffs, inflation trends, and domestic policy actions, particularly the RBI’s interest rate decision, to gauge the direction of the markets in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: The opinions, analyses and recommendations expressed herein are those of brokerage and do not reflect the views of The Times of India. Always consult with a qualified investment advisor or financial planner before making any investment decisions.
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