[ad_1]
India’s merchandise exports to the United States are projected to decline by a staggering $ 5.76 billion this year, primarily due to the rise in tariffs imposed by the US.
According to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), exports from key sectors such as marine items, gold, electronics, and electrical products are expected to bear the brunt of the tariff hike, as reported new agency PTI. However, India’s competitive edge in certain product segments could help mitigate some of these losses.
Major declines in electronics, seafood, and gold exports expected
The US has announced a 26% additional tariff on Indian goods (excluding pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and certain energy products) starting April 9. This move comes on top of the 10% baseline tariffs that have been in effect from April 5-8. According to GTRI, the total impact will result in a 6.41% drop in India’s exports to the US in 2025, following a strong export performance of $ 89.81 billion in 2024.
The sectors likely to face major losses include fish and crustaceans (a 20.2% decline), iron and steel articles (down by 18%), diamonds and gold products (a 15.3% drop), vehicle and parts exports (12.1% reduction), and electronics and telecom products (12% decline). Other categories such as plastics, carpets, petroleum products, and machinery are also expected to suffer.
Textiles and pharmaceuticals resilient
Despite these setbacks, some sectors are projected to experience modest gains. Products like textiles, apparel, ceramic items, inorganic chemicals, and pharmaceuticals may perform better due to India’s established competitive position in these categories.
High-value products such as energy goods, including petroleum, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals, remain exempt from these specific tariffs, and they accounted for $ 20.4 billion (22.7%) of India’s total exports to the US in 2024. These goods will continue to face only the standard Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs.
However, the largest impact is anticipated to fall on a broad basket of goods valued at $ 67.2 billion, which will now be subject to the 26% tariff increase. This sweeping hike will likely reshape trade dynamics across numerous industries.
India’s electronics and smartphones exports to the US, which reached $ 14.4 billion in 2024 (accounting for 35.8% of its global shipments in this category), are expected to see a significant decline. The new tariff hike could reduce these exports by 12%, or $ 1.78 billion, placing pressure on India’s position as the fourth-largest supplier of electronics and smartphones to the US.
Seafood exports from India are also likely to suffer greatly. The US imported $ 2 billion worth of frozen fish and shrimp from India in 2024, which previously entered the market duty-free. With the new 26% tariff, seafood exports are expected to fall by 20.2%, or $ 404.3 million, as Indian products now face stiff competition from Canada, which benefits from a tariff exemption under the USMCA trade pact.
Gold, auto parts, and diamonds
Exports of gold jewellery and cut and polished diamonds to the US are projected to decline by 15.3%, or roughly $ 1.82 billion. The new tariffs, combined with India’s relatively low value addition in this sector, will likely erode its share of the US market, which accounted for 40% of India’s total exports of these products in 2024.
Similarly, vehicle and auto parts exports, valued at $ 2.8 billion in 2024, are expected to fall by 12.1%, or $ 339.4 million, under the new tariff regime. Currently, the import duty on these products stands at just 1%, but with the tariff hikes, the sector is poised for a slowdown.
A complex picture with multiple variables ahead
GTRI notes that the analysis is based on detailed data, but it does have its limitations. The study assumes that exchange rates, global demand, and other variables remain constant, which may not be the case in real-world scenarios. Additionally, the study does not take into account how quickly Indian exporters can adapt to these changes, shift markets, or adjust pricing strategies in response to the new tariffs.
[ad_2]
Source link
About the author
Modi’s Asia Double Play: Japan Now, China Next — What India Wants (and Risks)
ndia has kicked off a tightly choreographed Asia tour at a delicate moment. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Tokyo first, meeting Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, before flying to Tianjin for the SCO summit hosted by China. The sequencing matters: Japan is a steadfast strategic and economic partner; China is a rival with whom India still needs a functional modus vivendi. The backdrop? Up to 50% US tariffs on Indian exports, which raise the premium on diversified trade and investment ties. ReutersAP NewsThe Times of IndiaThe Guardian Why Japan first Tokyo and New Delhi are doubling down on a “special strategic and global partnership” built over two decades. Expect deliverables in economic security (critical minerals, supply chains), high-tech collaboration, and infrastructure. Reports suggest the leaders are setting a decade-long joint vision and pushing private-sector investment goals alongside people-to-people exchanges […]
Luxury skincare expansion: L’Oreal acquires majority stake in Medik8; announces 1 billion Euro deal
[ad_1] Cosmetics maker L’Oreal agreed to acquire a majority stake in British skincare brand Medik8, in a strategic move to strengthen its presence in the booming skincare market. The French beauty giant announced the deal on Monday, though financial terms were not disclosed.The transaction, which sees UK-based private equity firm Inflexion selling its majority holding, reportedly values Medik8 at around 1 billion Euro, according to a source familiar with the matter. Inflexion will retain a minority share, while L’Oreal has secured the option to eventually buy out all remaining shareholders, Reuters reported.“We are delighted to welcome Medik8 to the L’Oréal family. As a premium skincare range, with high levels of proven efficacy at an accessible price point, Medik8 perfectly complements our existing skincare portfolio,” Cyril Chaupuy, president of L’oreal Luxe said.“This acquisition further strengthens L’Oreal’s luxe portfolio, adding a premium […]
270 million pulled out of poverty! How Modi government achieved a remarkable dip in extreme poverty & what’s the road ahead? Explained
[ad_1] India’s GDP has more than doubled in the last decade, and experts believe that this has trickled down to the poorest. (AI image) Marking a big achievement over the last decade, extreme poverty in India has dropped substantially from 27.1% in 2011-12 to 5.3% in 2022-23, according to the latest World Bank data. The remarkable progress under the Narendra Modi government has come despite the World Bank raising its poverty threshold to $3 per person per day from $2.15 per person per day earlier.Incidentally, India’s huge reduction in extreme poverty comes at a time when globally there has been an increase in the number of people below the poverty line. According to a government fact sheet, India has emerged a statistical outlier in the positive direction.The latest data is being seen as a boost in the government’s economic growth […]
Ayodhya land prices: Circle rates revised first time in 8 years; soar up to 200%
[ad_1] For the first time in eight years, Ayodhya has seen a sharp revision in its circle rates, with property prices rising between 30% and 200% across various parts of the district, officials told PTI.The prices are particularly steep within a 10-kilometre radius of the Ram Janmabhoomi Temple, an area witnessing a real estate boom fuelled by religious tourism and rapid infrastructure growth. Here, circle rates have jumped over 150%, pushing land values in the prime zone to Rs 26,600–27,900 per square metre, compared to Rs 6,650–6,975 earlier.Shanti Bhushan Chaubey, sub-registrar of Sadar (Faizabad) tehsil, said the hike followed a proposal submitted last September. “After addressing objections, the new circle rates were approved by District Magistrate Tikaram Funde and have now been enforced,” he said.According to Chaubey, the sharpest hikes were recorded in areas with the most land activity. “Localities […]
China exports: Global shipments rose 4.8% in May; inflow to US falls nearly 35% amid trade talks
[ad_1] China’s export growth lost momentum in May, rising 4.8% year-on-year, a sharp slowdown from the 8.1% surge recorded in April, as per the customs data released on Monday.The deceleration came amid a sharp drop in shipments to the United States, down 35% year-on-year, as tensions between the two economic giants continued to cloud trade prospects.The figures were released just hours ahead of another round of US-China trade negotiations scheduled for later in the day, in London. These talks come after a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week. Zichun Huang of Capital Economics anticipated exports growth to revive in June, thanks to a 90-day suspension on most of the tariffs the two countries have imposed on each other.China’s imports also fell in May, down 3.4% year-on-year, leaving the country with a trade […]
Tata Motors future plans: Rs 33,000-35,000 crore investment to boost passenger vehicles; hoping to lead in EV segment
[ad_1] Automaking giant Tata Motors is planning massive investment plans for the future, earmarking Rs 33,000 crore to Rs 35,000 crore for FY 26-30 on product actions. The Mumbai-headquartered company is targeting 30 product actions, including the launch of seven new models, as it looks to sharpen its competitive edge in India’s fast-evolving passenger vehicle (PV) market.As part of its long-term strategy, the automaker aims to secure a 16% market share, including electric vehicles (EVs), by FY27, rising to 18–20% over the next few years. Tata Motors expects the domestic PV industry to hit annual sales of 60 lakh units by 2030 and is positioning itself to ride that wave with a refreshed and expansive portfolio.“Looking ahead, we will strengthen our portfolio by FY30...7 new nameplates and 23 product refreshes will holistically enhance the portfolio,” the company told analysts in […]
Related
US Tariffs vs. India’s Trade Diplomacy: How New Alliances Are Shaping
India’s global trade playbook has shifted abruptly in 2025. The US recently imposed tariffs as high as 50% on Indian exports, citing New Delhi’s continued oil imports from Russia. The immediate fallout was brutal: the rupee sank to a record low, and Indian markets felt the shock. For a country that built its post-1991 trajectory on closer US ties, this tariff punch could have been destabilising. Instead, India is doubling down on multi-alignment diplomacy — diversifying trade and diplomatic engagement with Japan, China, Russia, and the SCO bloc. Why tariffs hit hard The US remains a top destination for Indian goods — from IT services to textiles. Tariffs of this magnitude erode competitiveness and raise uncertainty for exporters. Analysts warn of job impacts in labour-intensive sectors. The rupee’s plunge to historic lows only underscored the vulnerability. India’s counter-strategy Japan: Securing […]
Reliance AGM 2025: Jio IPO Timeline, New AI Subsidiary, and What It Means
Reliance Industries’ AGM has again doubled as India’s tech-policy bellwether. The biggest headline: Jio will file for an IPO in the first half of 2026, a move that could be among the largest listings on Dalal Street and a pivotal unlock of value for Reliance shareholders. In parallel, the company announced a dedicated AI subsidiary aimed at building domestic AI infrastructure and services. Reutersmint+1NDTV Profit Jio IPO: Why the timing matters Analysts have long argued that Jio’s value is partially buried within the conglomerate structure. A separate listing could surface value for a digital-and-telecom pure play with 500M+ users, deep fiber, and growing home broadband. International coverage pegs potential valuations in the eleven-digit-USD range if growth and ARPU trends hold through 2026. The listing window — H1 2026 — provides time to polish metrics, expand revenue lines (enterprise, broadband, OTT), […]
E20 Petrol in India: Green Revolution or Hidden Scam?
For the past few years, India has been pushing hard towards adopting alternative fuels and reducing its dependency on imported crude oil. One of the most talked-about initiatives is the rollout of E20 petrol, which is a blend of 80% petrol and 20% ethanol. On paper, this looks like a revolutionary step — it’s designed to reduce carbon emissions, cut down fuel imports, and boost ethanol demand that directly benefits Indian farmers. But there’s a rising question among common people: If E20 petrol contains only 80% petrol, why are we still paying the same price as regular petrol? Shouldn’t the price be lower since 20% of the mix is ethanol, which is significantly cheaper to produce compared to crude oil-based petrol? This is where many start suspecting that the promotion of E20 might not be as transparent as it seems. […]
Luxury skincare expansion: L’Oreal acquires majority stake in Medik8; announces 1 billion Euro deal
[ad_1] Cosmetics maker L’Oreal agreed to acquire a majority stake in British skincare brand Medik8, in a strategic move to strengthen its presence in the booming skincare market. The French beauty giant announced the deal on Monday, though financial terms were not disclosed.The transaction, which sees UK-based private equity firm Inflexion selling its majority holding, reportedly values Medik8 at around 1 billion Euro, according to a source familiar with the matter. Inflexion will retain a minority share, while L’Oreal has secured the option to eventually buy out all remaining shareholders, Reuters reported.“We are delighted to welcome Medik8 to the L’Oréal family. As a premium skincare range, with high levels of proven efficacy at an accessible price point, Medik8 perfectly complements our existing skincare portfolio,” Cyril Chaupuy, president of L’oreal Luxe said.“This acquisition further strengthens L’Oreal’s luxe portfolio, adding a premium […]
270 million pulled out of poverty! How Modi government achieved a remarkable dip in extreme poverty & what’s the road ahead? Explained
[ad_1] India’s GDP has more than doubled in the last decade, and experts believe that this has trickled down to the poorest. (AI image) Marking a big achievement over the last decade, extreme poverty in India has dropped substantially from 27.1% in 2011-12 to 5.3% in 2022-23, according to the latest World Bank data. The remarkable progress under the Narendra Modi government has come despite the World Bank raising its poverty threshold to $3 per person per day from $2.15 per person per day earlier.Incidentally, India’s huge reduction in extreme poverty comes at a time when globally there has been an increase in the number of people below the poverty line. According to a government fact sheet, India has emerged a statistical outlier in the positive direction.The latest data is being seen as a boost in the government’s economic growth […]
Ayodhya land prices: Circle rates revised first time in 8 years; soar up to 200%
[ad_1] For the first time in eight years, Ayodhya has seen a sharp revision in its circle rates, with property prices rising between 30% and 200% across various parts of the district, officials told PTI.The prices are particularly steep within a 10-kilometre radius of the Ram Janmabhoomi Temple, an area witnessing a real estate boom fuelled by religious tourism and rapid infrastructure growth. Here, circle rates have jumped over 150%, pushing land values in the prime zone to Rs 26,600–27,900 per square metre, compared to Rs 6,650–6,975 earlier.Shanti Bhushan Chaubey, sub-registrar of Sadar (Faizabad) tehsil, said the hike followed a proposal submitted last September. “After addressing objections, the new circle rates were approved by District Magistrate Tikaram Funde and have now been enforced,” he said.According to Chaubey, the sharpest hikes were recorded in areas with the most land activity. “Localities […]
Be the first to leave a comment