A million mark: The number behind Trump’s deportation push

<p>A million mark: The number behind Trump’s deportation push</p><p><br></p>

As US President Donald Trump resumes his presidency, his administration is reportedly targeting an unprecedented immigration crackdown, with a goal of deporting up to 1 million immigrants within the first year, according to multiple federal officials familiar with internal planning.
According to a report from The Washington Post, the figure, which far exceeds previous records, has become a frequent reference point in behind-the-scenes discussions, although the administration has yet to publicly detail how the numbers are being calculated. Under former President Barack Obama, annual deportations peaked at just over 400,000.
Experts and former officials have cast doubt on the feasibility of the goal, citing significant legal, logistical, and financial hurdles. Most undocumented immigrants in the US have a legal right to court proceedings before removal, a process that often takes months or even years due to extensive backlogs in the immigration system.
White House adviser Stephen Miller has reportedly been holding near-daily meetings with officials from the department of homeland security (DHS) and other agencies to push the plan forward. One avenue under consideration includes deporting some of the estimated 1.4 million immigrants who already have final removal orders but remain in the country because their home nations have refused to accept them.
In a bid to work around that obstacle, the administration is negotiating with up to 30 countries to accept non-citizen deportees, often referred to as third-country removals. Officials confirmed that immigrants have already been deported to nations such as Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama — and in one recent instance, Rwanda, following negotiations.
If fully implemented, this would be the largest deportation effort in US history. A DHS spokesperson said more than 117,000 deportations had been carried out by late March, combining arrests made by immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) inside the country and those made by customs and border protection (CBP) at entry points. The agency claims these figures do not include individuals who have voluntarily left the US.
Still, immigration analysts say the numbers fall well short of the administration’s 1 million target. Doris Meissner, a senior fellow at the migration policy institute and former US immigration commissioner, said ICE is projected to deport around 212,000 people this fiscal year — fewer than the 271,000 removals last year, most of which followed illegal border crossings.
Detentions are at capacity, with more than 47,000 individuals in custody in late March. Deportation flights are on the rise but only marginally — from about 100 in January to 134 in March, a 15 per cent increase. “It would be just a massive, massive increase to reach 1 million removals,” said Tom Cartwright, an advocate who tracks deportation data. “I don’t know where those numbers are coming from.”
Meanwhile, the administration has reportedly leaned on high-profile operations, transferring detainees to facilities in El Salvador and Guantánamo Bay — moves viewed by insiders as more symbolic than impactful.
A multi-agency push involving the FBI, DEA, and ATF is underway to locate and detain individuals with final deportation orders. Still, morale among immigration officers is reportedly flagging amid persistent pressure and skepticism about achieving the administration’s goals.
“They say it jokingly: ‘We’ve got to get a million removals.’ That’s their goal,” said one former official.
On the legal front, the administration has encountered pushback. Federal judges have blocked attempts to deport immigrants without proper hearings, particularly in cases involving removal to third countries. In one instance, a Salvadoran man was mistakenly deported despite a court order protecting him due to threats from gangs in his home country.
In response to growing legal scrutiny, DHS Secretary Kristi L Noem issued guidance mandating that before any third-country deportation, officers must secure “diplomatic assurances” ensuring the person will not face torture or persecution. Immigrants must be informed of their destination and allowed to raise objections. If fear is expressed, they must undergo a screening by US citizenship and immigration services, typically within 24 hours — a timeframe criticised by immigration lawyers as inadequate.
While the Trump administration has refrained from publicly confirming the 1 million figure, spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement that the government is acting on a mandate from voters to overhaul the immigration system. “The entire Trump administration is aligned on delivering on this mandate, not on arbitrary goals,” he said, framing the efforts as focused on removing “terrorist and criminal illegal aliens.”
Despite the rhetoric and ramped-up enforcement, analysts and former officials alike remain unconvinced the administration can hit its aspirational target. “This isn’t just a switch you can flip,” Meissner said. “The deportation process is complex and resource-intensive.”