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India’s GDP growth outlook for 2025 has been revised downwards to 6.2% by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook report for April 2025. In its January world growth outlook report, the IMF had predicted a 6.5% GDP growth rate for the Indian economy.
The revision in growth outlook comes on the back of increased uncertainty due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff moves. “For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 percent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 0.3 percentage point lower than that in the January 2025 WEO Update on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty,” IMF said in its report.
IMF has also drastically revised downwards the growth outlook for the global economy, the US and China. The growth forecast for the world economy has been cut to 2.8% down half a percentage point from the earlier estimates.
Global growth revised down significantly
For China, 2025 GDP growth is revised downward to 4.0 percent from 4.6 percent in the January 2025 WEO Update. This reflects the impact of recently implemented tariffs, which offset the stronger carryover from 2024 (as a result of a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter) and fiscal expansion in the budget, IMF said.
Growth in 2026 is also revised downward to 4.0 percent from 4.5 percent in the January 2025 WEO Update on the back of prolonged trade policy uncertainty and the tariffs now in place, IMF added.
The GDP growth projection for the US economy has been cut sharply to 1.8%, down almost a full percentage point from the January 2025 projection.
“The global economic system under which most countries have operated for the last 80 years is being reset, ushering the world into a new era. Existing rules are challenged while new ones are yet to emerge,” said IMF.
“Since late January, a flurry of tariff announcements by the United States…The resulting epistemic uncertainty and policy unpredictability is a major driver of the economic outlook. If sustained, this abrupt increase in tariffs and attendant uncertainty will significantly slow global growth,” it warned.
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