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Equity markets are expected to remain volatile in the upcoming holiday-shortened week, with investors closely watching developments on the US-China tariff war front, along with key quarterly earnings from major Indian companies including Wipro and Infosys, according to analysts.
Trading activity will be impacted by market closures on Monday for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and on Friday due to Good Friday. Amid this limited window, market sentiment is likely to be dictated by global cues, foreign investor activity, inflation data, and macroeconomic numbers from major economies.
“The upcoming week is set to be volatile for global and Indian markets, as the trade war between China and the US intensified with both countries imposing tariffs on each other, causing turmoil in the markets,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.
He also noted that domestic investors will keep a close watch on the release of Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures, while global investors await key economic data from the US, UK, and China.
Tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff plan in early April. While the White House later paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for most countries, China was excluded. In retaliation, Beijing announced a 125 per cent tariff on US imports after the US imposed a 145 per cent duty. Despite the standoff, China has indicated that it is open to negotiations.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President – Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said, “The upcoming holiday-shortened week will remain sensitive to further developments on the US-China tariff front. On the domestic side, the spotlight will also be on corporate earnings, with heavyweights such as Wipro and Infosys from the IT sector, along with private banking majors HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, scheduled to announce their quarterly results.”
Last week, the domestic markets ended with modest losses amid volatility. The BSE Sensex fell by 207.43 points or 0.27 per cent, while the NSE Nifty declined by 75.9 points or 0.33 per cent.
Adding to the pressure, the US on April 2 announced a 26 per cent tariff on Indian goods, which was partially eased on April 9 when the Trump administration suspended the new tariffs on India for 90 days, until July 9. However, a baseline 10 per cent tariff remains in effect.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research – Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said that Indian markets are likely to continue witnessing volatility. “We expect the Indian markets to remain volatile, tracking global market cues, developments on the US tariffs and the Q4 corporate earnings announcements,” he said.
Market sentiment will also be influenced by movements in the rupee-dollar exchange rate and Brent crude oil prices. A note from Bajaj Broking Research added, “This week brings a host of significant economic data releases from major global economies, which are expected to guide market sentiment and influence monetary policy expectations.”
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