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India registered around 25.8 lakh more deaths in Covid year 2021 compared to 2019, the last pre-Covid year, as per official data based on the civil registration system (CRS) that was released on Wednesday. After accounting for a natural increase in population over the two-year period, the spike in deaths in 2021 is about 20 lakh, nearly six times the official Covid death tally of 3.3 lakh in that year.The highest undercounting of deaths was in Gujarat, which saw nearly 2 lakh excess fatalities, more than 33 times the state’s official count of just over 5,800 Covid deaths in 2021, the data revealed.Excess deaths were 18 times higher than the official Covid toll in Madhya Pradesh and 15 times higher in West Bengal. In Bihar, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh too, excess deaths were more than 10 times higher than the official Covid toll.The lowest discrepancy between official Covid tolls and the calculated excess deaths for that year were in Kerala, Uttarakhand, Assam, Maharashtra and Delhi, the data reveals. The report on vital statistics of India based on the civil registration system (CRS) released on Wednesday shows that India registered around 25.8 lakh more deaths in the Covid year of 2021 compared to 2019, the last pre-Covid year. Not all of the excess deaths are attributable to Covid, but even accounting for a natural increase in population over the two-year period, the spike is about 20 lakh, nearly six times the official Covid death tally of 3.3 lakh in that year.Gujarat saw the highest undercounting of deaths with nearly 2 lakh excess deaths, more than 33 times the official count of just over 5,800 Covid deaths in 2021. Other states where the excess deaths were several times the official Covid toll were Madhya Pradesh (18x) and West Bengal (15x). In Bihar, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh too, the excess deaths were over ten times the official Covid toll.How do we get to these numbers? Even with the death rate remaining unchanged, the number of deaths would increase as the population does. Hence, we applied the 2019 death rates, as revealed in the sample registration system (SRS), to the 2021 population projected by the Census office to arrive at what the number of deaths should have been in 2021 in the normal course. In fact, death rates had been falling steadily till 2019, so these estimates actually somewhat overestimate what the numbers would have been. We then compared this estimate to the actual number for 2021 reported by the CRS. The difference is ‘excess deaths’.In Madya Pradesh, the government’s Covid death tally for 2021 was about 6,900 deaths. However, total deaths registered in 2021 exceeded the number projected using 2019 death rates by about 1.3 lakh. West Bengal reported a little over 10,000 Covid deaths in 2021, while excess deaths were over 1.5 lakh.Among larger states, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Assam, Maharashtra and Delhi showed the least discrepancy between the Covid death tally given by the respective governments for 2021 and the calculated excess deaths for that year. In these, excess deaths varied from 1.5 to 3.1 times the official Covid toll.Another report, on medical certification of cause of deaths in 2021, also released on Wednesday, shows that Covid was the second leading cause of death that year accounting for 17.3% of deaths, behind diseases of the circulatory system, which accounted for 29.8% of total medically certified deaths. This meant that despite medically certified deaths accounting for less than a quarter (23.4%) of total registered deaths, the number of certified Covid deaths in the report was 4.1 lakh, higher than India’s official tally of 3.3 lakh Covid deaths.
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